Photo: Mostphotos.

K2 leads a national research project on the halved public transport fares

3 Sep 2026

K2, Sweden’s national knowledge centre for collective mobility, has initiated a broad national research project to evaluate the impacts of the government’s initiative to halve the cost of public transport season tickets. The project is being carried out in close collaboration with the public transport sector.

At a press conference on 26 May this year, the Swedish government announced that the price of public transport season tickets would be halved nationwide for the period 1 July to 31 December. At K2, Sweden’s national knowledge centre for collective mobility, a rapid decision was made to initiate a broad research project in which researchers, working closely with industry representatives, will evaluate the reform and its effects across the country. The project commenced on 25 June, and results will be presented on an ongoing basis.

“The process on our side moved unusually quickly, in just a few days. We immediately realised that someone needed to take an overall approach to this and that we were well placed to do so. We also needed to act fast so that researchers and regional authorities could begin the necessary data collection as soon as possible and not miss any opportunities to gather information before the fare reduction came into effect,” says Helena Svensson, Director of K2.

A quantitative and a qualitative component

The project consists of a quantitative and a qualitative component. The project leader and person responsible for the quantitative component is Maria Börjesson, Professor at the Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI) and a researcher affiliated with K2.

“It is very rare to see a large-scale change like this in public transport and have the opportunity to study it. For us as researchers, it is a dream scenario. We will be working at full capacity this autumn and hope to produce preliminary results as early as October,” she says.

Joel Hansson, a researcher at Lund University’s Faculty of Engineering (LTH) and K2, leads the qualitative component.

“It is unique to be able to work on this type of extensive reform, especially one that is being implemented nationwide. It is extremely exciting, and it is also very rewarding to work on something that attracts such broad public interest,” he says.

The quantitative component examines the effects of the reform on travel demand and ticket sales. (See the fact box below for further details.) The qualitative component focuses on how the fare reduction is perceived and what practical consequences it has for the regional public transport authorities.

“Part of it concerns purely administrative issues, but what we find even more interesting is whether the reform affects the public transport system itself. For example, whether resources are reallocated to high-demand corridors if more people travel by public transport, and whether the regions then need to provide additional resources or reduce spending in other areas,” says Joel Hansson.

Uncertain impact on car use

An important question is whether more people will choose not to drive when season tickets become cheaper, particularly given that the fare reduction applies only for a limited period. Maria Börjesson notes that driving is also relatively inexpensive at present due to reduced fuel taxes.

“No transport researcher expects major effects in that respect, but we simply do not know. We will do our best to investigate it and, as far as possible, also measure car use, cycling and walking, but that is detective work,” she says.

Public transport fares are a recurring topic of discussion. Maria Börjesson emphasises that the key question is what a fare reduction is intended to achieve and what it actually delivers.

“Does it lead to more public transport journeys, fewer car trips, or mainly to people switching ticket types? Do new passengers come from car travel or from walking and cycling, as previous studies have shown? Does it benefit financially vulnerable groups, or does it lead to behavioural change? By monitoring the reform, we can assess whether it achieves its intended effects and whether it is an efficient use of taxpayers’ money. That knowledge is important for future political decision-making,” says Maria Börjesson.

Close collaboration with the sector

To facilitate data collection, a reference group comprising industry representatives has been established, and cooperation with the metropolitan regions has already begun.

“Everyone has shown considerable interest and understands how important this is, but it also requires a great deal of work on their part. We are extremely grateful for the support provided through the networks of K2 and the Swedish Public Transport Association. Without them, this would not have been possible,” says Maria Börjesson.

Johan Wadman, CEO of the Swedish Public Transport Association, is a member of the project’s reference group.

“I think K2 and the public transport sector responded with remarkable speed. The government’s announcement came completely unexpectedly, and K2 could not have reacted any faster. As far as I know, no similar study is currently under way, and this demonstrates the value of K2 to those of us in the sector. The study is a way of increasing our understanding of how pricing influences public transport demand. Service levels, travel times, transfers and disruptions also affect people’s choices, but this gives us an opportunity to gain better knowledge of the specific role played by price, which is highly interesting,” he says.

Facts: The research project

The project, “Halved Price of Public Transport Season Tickets: Effects on Travel Demand and Revenue”, runs from 25 June 2026 to 31 December 2027 and currently has a budget of SEK 1.4 million. The project consists of a quantitative and a qualitative component.

The quantitative component examines the effects of halving the price of season tickets across Sweden by collecting comparable data before, during and, where possible, after the period of reduced fares. The study covers:

Travel demand effects: Changes in public transport use, including the number of journeys and, where possible, passenger-kilometres travelled. Researchers will also investigate whether the reform affects car travel, cycling and walking.
Ticket sales and financial impacts: Changes in sales of season tickets and single tickets. (Sales of single tickets often generate higher revenues for regional authorities.) The study will also examine how, when and where different groups travel and purchase tickets, as well as the financial consequences for regions, including any refunds for previously purchased season tickets.

The qualitative component consists of three sub-studies:

Background to the reform: An analysis of the government’s decision-making basis, policy preparation process, intended objectives, how the decision was taken, as well as the views expressed by regional public transport authorities in their consultation responses.
Practical implications for regional public transport authorities: Administrative effects, possible impacts on public transport systems (for example, whether resources are reallocated to high-demand corridors if ridership increases), how cooperation with the state functions, and how the reform affects funding, pricing policies and ticketing strategies in the longer term.
Passenger perspectives: For example, satisfaction with fares and perceptions of the reform. This sub-study may be carried out by the Swedish Public Transport Association through the Public Transport Barometer (Kollektivtrafikbarometern).

A reference group with representatives from the public transport authorities of Sweden’s three metropolitan regions, the Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket), the Swedish Transport Analysis Agency (Trafikanalys), and the Swedish Public Transport Association is attached to the project.

Text: Anna Maria Erling

Link to the project:
Halved-price public transport season tickets – effects on travel and revenues – K2