Halved-price public transport season tickets – effects on travel and revenues
The Swedish Government’s temporary 50 per cent reduction in the price of 30-day public transport tickets, from July to December 2026, provides a unique opportunity to study how fares affect travel behaviour. The main purpose of the project is to study the effects of this pricing reform. To enable this, a large part of the work at this stage involves securing a nationally comparable dataset covering the periods before, during, and after the reform. It also examines which travellers and trip purposes are affected, and whether travel shifts from car, cycling or walking. By comparing the same months in 2025 and the period before the reform, we can distinguish the effects of the price reduction from normal seasonal variation. The results will inform future decisions on public transport fares, ticket structures and public subsidies. The dataset will enable initial analyses during autumn 2026 of developments in travel, ticket sales and revenues. These analyses will provide an early evidence-based basis for discussions of the reform, while more in-depth analyses will be carried out when a longer observation period is available.
The project consists of both a quantitative and a qualitative component. The quantitative component is led by Maria Börjesson (VTI), while Joel Hansson (LTH) has primary responsibility for the qualitative component.
The quantitative component examines the effects of halving the price of season tickets across Sweden by collecting comparable data before, during and, where possible, after the period of reduced fares. The study covers:
- Travel demand effects: Changes in public transport use, including the number of journeys and, where possible, passenger-kilometres travelled. Researchers will also investigate whether the reform affects car travel, cycling and walking.
- Ticket sales and financial impacts: Changes in sales of season tickets and single tickets. (Sales of single tickets often generate higher revenues for regional authorities.) The study will also examine how, when and where different groups travel and purchase tickets, as well as the financial consequences for regions, including any refunds for previously purchased season tickets.
The qualitative component consists of three sub-studies:
- Background to the reform: An analysis of the government’s decision-making basis, policy preparation process, intended objectives, how the decision was taken and its expected effects, as well as the views expressed by regional public transport authorities in their consultation responses.
- Practical implications for regional public transport authorities: Administrative effects, possible impacts on public transport systems (for example, whether resources are reallocated to high-demand corridors if ridership increases), how cooperation with the state functions, and how the reform affects funding, pricing policies and ticketing strategies in the longer term.
- Passenger perspectives: For example, satisfaction with fares and perceptions of the reform. This sub-study may be carried out by the Swedish Public Transport Association through the Public Transport Barometer (Kollektivtrafikbarometern).
Several organisations are collaborating on the project, including VTI, SL, Västtrafik, Skånetrafiken, the Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket), the Swedish Public Transport Association (Svensk Kollektivtrafik), and the Swedish Transport Analysis Agency (Trafikanalys). This collaboration is essential for gaining access to comparable, well-documented data from different parts of the country.