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”A new model for analyzing differentiated fares and frequencies for urban bus services in small cities”
Disa Asplund, Roger Pyddoke. K2 Working Papers 2017:8. (2017)
The purpose of this project is to develop a model for the welfare evaluation of fare and frequency policies for bus-based public transport in small or medium-sized cities that accounts for both road congestion and crowding on public transport. The model has been calibrated using data from Uppsala. Two scenarios involving marginal increases in service frequencies and fares are evaluated. This is followed by an evaluation of four main scenarios for optimal policies: fares with unchanged service frequencies, service frequencies with unchanged fares, fares and frequencies optimised simultaneously, and finally a scenario referred to as the Pareto scenario, in which service frequencies and fares are optimised subject to the condition that no consumer group, defined by zone, time period and origin-destination pair, is made worse off in terms of generalised travel cost.
The results suggest that reducing service frequencies in Uppsala would generate large and apparently robust welfare gains, particularly in the city’s outer zone, where the reductions compared with the current situation are quite drastic. By comparison, the welfare gains from adjusting fares are smaller. As the optimal scenario would have substantial distributional effects, the introduction of such a policy would probably be controversial. In the Pareto scenario, however, almost all the welfare gains achieved in the optimal scenario are realised, while no consumers in any zone or time period are worse off than under the current policy. In this scenario, the total number of public transport passengers increases and emissions are reduced compared with the current situation.
