K2 reports

Collaborative contracting between public transport authorities (PTAs) and bus operators has been presented as a successful method for reaching public transport policy goals. This paper examines management processes and outcome data, asking whether this management approach, incorporating more far-reaching collaborative elements, is associated with higher goal achievement in two Swedish regions and two contracts. Stated regional policy goals are ridership growth, reaching set levels of customer satisfaction, and some cost-efficiency. This management approach suggests that PTAs should delegate more planning responsibility to operators. PTA management assessed the approach to be valid but, to our surprise, also said that they frequently reclaimed previously abandoned control to secure desired outcomes. This indicates that more delegation may not necessarily have led to increased goal achievement. Without making claims as to causality, we note that ridership increased in both regions and individual contracts, while customer satisfaction stagnated and costs increased steeply in both regions, but not in one contract. The paper questions whether collaborative contracting, on average, has contributed to ridership increases, although it may have in some instances.

Covid-19 has affected the supply, demand, and image of public transport in unprecedented ways. This report aims to investigate the short- and long-term effects of Covid-19 on public transport and its funding models, with specific focus on the Swedish context. Three research questions are in focus: How does Covid-19 impact on revenues and costs for public transport? What measures have public transport agencies made in response to these challenges? How does changes or stability in public transport due to Covid-19, in the longer run impact on the possibility to reach regional political aims of sustainable transport? The research questions are approached with both quantitative and qualitative methods, including interviews and a scenario workshop with mobility actors in Sweden. The three Swedish metropolitan regions, Stockholm, Västra Götaland and Skåne, are used as cases.

The report shows very clearly how farebox revenues drastically decreased in all three regions, as many people listened to the recommendations from authorities to avoid public transport. At the same time, costs remained largely unchanged. This resulted in a widened gap between costs for operating the system, and revenues that could finance those costs. To compensate for the loss of ticket revenues, earmarked state contributions were introduced on several occasions on an ad-hoc basis. Even with state contributions, regional subsidies to public transport increased. The so-called cost-recovery ratio declined in unprecedented ways. Thus, the share of public subsidies coming from tax-money, both regional and national, increased.

The three regions responded in similar ways to the funding challenge, but with some variations. Region Skåne was the only region that downsized operations at an early stage to reduce costs, which caused some political turmoil. Stockholm and Västra Götaland decided to maintain operations unchanged. Increased problems with fare evasion added to the problem of reduced revenues. To meet changes in demand, with more people working from home, new tickets were introduced. Several other measures were implemented to reduce congestion and transmission of disease, such as dispersed school start and improved traffic information. Such measures can impact costs in the longer-term perspective if adopted at larger scale and over longer time.

Future implications of the pandemic on public transport and its funding are difficult to assess. The report includes an analysis based on four different scenarios developed within the project – “Downward spiral”, “Return”, “New mobility systems” and “Public transport as backbone”. The analysis indicates that he public transport actors in particular should try to avoid and be prepared to handle the scenario of “Downward spiral”, but also “Return” and “New mobility systems”, since these scenarios are judged to include difficulties.

Based on institutional theory, three more general reflections are made concerning the impact on future funding models. A first reflection is that the national level has stepped in as an important funder of public transport in Sweden. If demand for public transport remain on a significantly lower level compared to the pre-pandemic situation, continued national funding might be needed to prevent a development in line with the “Downward spiral” scenario. If so, national funding may be part of a new institutional equilibrium that influence power relations and actor’s behavior in the future.

A second observation is that the pandemic might change ideas about public transport’s role in society in ways that transform the existing institutions from within. A larger focus on individual, demand responsive solutions, and measures to reduce crowding will impact funding models. Increased working from home change the basic idea of a public transport system serving a rather fixed commuting behavior. More flexibility will be needed for public transport to remain relevant. We have already seen examples of institutional adjustments in ticket regimes, which is something that may continue at a larger scale.

A third reflection is that the widened funding gap change the cost-benefit equation in public transport. This may have repercussions for the institutional frameworks. In the “Downward spiral” scenario institutions may change mainly from within, with a shift from a focus on societal development and sustainability towards a more budget oriented way of thinking, with cost reductions, revenue maximization, increased ticket prices, and similar measures. To avoid such a development, the national level may need to take a more active role in funding, but also take a more active role as a “meta-governor” that steer the direction of public transport actors. The scenarios, “New mobility systems” and “Public transport as backbone” will require larger institutional makeovers where new funding models are needed to support other forms of shared transport modes. This may in more fundamental ways change the perception of what public transport is and how it should be funded.

The standard public procurement approach has been to award contracts to the lowest bidder meeting the requirements. In the EU, another award mechanism is almost as common and, moreover, is being promoted, i.e. awarding contracts to the best combination of price and quality, though whether this provides better value has rarely been studied. We contribute relevant empirical evidence by analyzing performance in public bus service contracts. In awarding contracts, a Swedish regional public transport authority alternated between favoring the lowest price and evaluating both price and bus operators’ processes for managing and improving bus service. The results of comparing these two approaches suggest that bus operators perform equally well in terms of punctuality regardless of the award mechanism. We conclude that caution is needed when promoting and implementing award mechanisms evaluating both price and quality. Knowledge of whether and how these outperform lowest price mechanisms remain limited in practice.

The purpose of this report is to provide summary information of the policy instruments that have either been implemented or are under discussion in order to reduce vehicle kilometers travelled (VKT) by cars and trucks in the state of California and in Sweden. The summary is based on a review of policy documents, reports and scientific papers that are relevant for both cases, as well as interviews with a senior policy advisor from California, and a professor with more than 30 years of experience in a wide range of issues within the fields of transport analysis, transport modelling and transport policy within the Swedish context, from Lund University, Sweden.

In both cases, reducing VKT is mainly linked to reaching policy goals of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In both cases, this is considered an effective strategy for reducing GHG emissions. However, both cases appear to be engaged in an exploratory process with respect to the development of both policy and policy instruments for reducing VKT, even if the cases appear to be in slightly different stages of this exploratory process.

In California, reducing VKT is a clear policy purpose. The Senate Bill 375 (SB375), signed into law in 2008, legislated for the reduction of VKT. Following the passage of SB375, focused policy and planning instruments have been both developed and proposed at state, regional and local levels. Legislating for the reduction of VKT as a policy is considered a clear step towards integrating land use and transport planning. The legislation SB375 is intended to ensure that the housing and transportation organizations align their goals and strategies with the aim of reducing VKT. The implementation process has facilitated tight collaboration between public and private sectors, non-profit organizations, researchers and professionals, which has contributed to the development and implementation of the instruments for reducing VKT, in line with SB375.

In Sweden, reducing VKT is not framed as a policy purpose in itself, but is instead discussed as a sub-goal for reaching the other policy purposes. Such policy purposes include reducing GHG emissions and alleviating congestion, as well as increasing the modal share of active transport and public transport in order to achieve environmental objective and promote sustainable urban development, including to improve public health and create livable cities. These policies can potentially reduce car dependence, and hence reduce VKT. Several of the policy instruments in the Swedish context exist at different administrative levels: local (e.g. land use, parking fees), regional (e.g. most of the public transport provision) and national (e.g. taxes and tax rebates, funding mechanisms and incentives).

Established funding programs are one of the economic instruments implemented in order to reduce VKT in both cases. Furthermore, while the state and the regional authorities have the capacity to provide and coordinate the incentive programs, it is important to install the corresponding capacity at a local level in order to effectively use the incentives.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has brought a series of unprecedented challenges to the public transport sector. Public transport authorities, operators and users are faced with new constraints and responsibilities and can rely on a still limited and evolving body of scientific knowledge to take informed decisions.

This working paper presents a review of the international academic literature on the way in which public transport operations and use have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Collecting academic articles belonging to multiple disciplines, the review presents a series of findings and recommendations pertaining to the new coronavirus’ routes of transmission (Chapter 2), the challenges emerging as a consequence of the pandemic (Chapter 3) and the related recommendations (Chapter 4).

The routes of transmission for SARS-Cov-2, the virus causing COVID-19, are contact transmission (when there is a direct contact with an infected person or a contact with a contaminated surface), droplet transmission (when, in proximity with an infected person, the virus is transmitted by both large and small respiratory droplets containing the virus), and airborne transmission (when the virus is transmitted by smaller droplets and particles suspended in the air). The relative contribution of the different transmission pathways is still uncertain, but the most recent evidence suggests that droplet and airborne transmission are the major ones. Further, there is still no clear knowledge about how SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted in public transport and whether its use increases the risk of being infected. However, higher risks of infection are related to the close proximity among passengers, the many high-touch surfaces, the use of potentially crowded spaces (such as transport hubs and stations), and the lack of access controls. Distance and duration of the trip also play a role. The use of face masks, frequent cleaning, and proper ventilation appear to be important countermeasures.

A series of interrelated challenges and policy responses emerged from the pandemic’s impact on public transport. The challenges identified by the literature pertain to public health, changing travel behaviours and attitudes, financial sustainability, social equity and sustainable mobility. The need to safeguard the health of passengers and of on-board workers while, at the same time, guaranteeing the operation of the public transport service led to a series of heterogeneous responses. They include service suspension, reduced frequency, discouraged use, reduced capacity of vehicles, fare suspension and rear-door boarding, hygiene measures, design interventions and use of personal protective equipment (PPE). The relative impact of these responses is still unclear. For what concerns emerging travel behaviours, public transport ridership has seen a steep decrease in many countries as an effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions, public authorities’ recommendations, and the concern over contracting or spreading the virus. Not only travel behaviours have changed, but also attitudes towards public transport appear to have worsened. A further challenge pertains to the financial sustainability of public transport. The decline in demand, measures impacting the payment of fares (e.g. compulsory rear-boarding or the decrease in ticket inspections), the increase of certain items of expenditure (such as those related to hygiene procedures, purchase of PPE and increased supply to comply with physical distancing rules) and the unavailability of public funds to subsidize public transport emerge as the main causes of financial instability and risk of bankruptcy for public transportation. These emerging constraints further jeopardize the ability of public transport to guarantee accessibility and, thereby, contrast the risks of transport-related social exclusion. Public transport may be the only option for many users who are unable or unwilling to walk, cycle or drive a car and who still have to carry out necessary out-of-home activities. Further, research shows that working from home during the pandemic is mostly a privilege of people with higher incomes. Lastly, the pandemic poses a threat to sustainable mobility both because of the shift to private motorized vehicles and since the decreased ridership jeopardizes the role of buses in emissions reductions.  

For what concerns scenarios and recommendations, the literature on COVID-19 and public transport stresses the need for further research to support evidence-based decision making. This will be pivotal to address the delicate trade-off between the aforementioned challenges. Public transport needs multi-pronged strategies to enhance safety and find a viable balance between the different demands related to its governance, provision and use. Recommendations emerging from the reviewed literature pertain to general health-related measures, strategies for supply-, crowd- and demand management aimed at physical distancing, and advices for safeguarding the equity and sustainability goals of public transport.

The report presents an international literature review on Transit Oriented Development (TOD) research carried out in order to frame the research problem and gaps for a research project that is to be carried out largely in the Swedish context. The literature searches of peer-reviewed articles, literature reviews, and conference papers were carried out in the bibliographic databases Google Scholar, Scopus and Web of Science based on keywords selected by the project team. The report presents definitions of TOD, the application of the TOD concept in semiperipheral, peripheral and rural areas, the role of the private sector in delivering TOD, as well as best practice examples, including enabling processual planning factors, barriers and outcomes. It then identifies research gaps that are related to the above topics. Based on the findings of the literature review, the report suggests an outline for future research.

Den här rapporten bygger på en fokusgruppstudie av hur MalmöExpressen och

Malmöpendeln har påverkat resvanorna hos invånare i Rosengård. Utgångspunkten är att

båda dessa kollektivtrafikinvesteringar har haft ett uttalat socialt mål att öka

tillgängligheten för Rosengårdsbor. Det är därför av stort intresse att studera hur dessa

investeringar påverkat tillgängligheten för invånarna i området. En teoretisk

utgångspunkt för studien är forskningsområdet ”transporträttvisa”, vilket intresserar sig

för hur transportlösningar påverkar olika samhällsgrupper. Studien använder sig av

förmågemodellen (the capability approach) som teoretiskt ramverk för att analysera hur

MalmöExpressen och Malmöpendeln påverkar möjligheterna att vara mobil och hur de

påverkar vardagslivet för invånarna i Rosengård. Studiens syfte är att kartlägga olika

uppfattningar bland invånare i Rosengård om hur MalmöExpressen och Malmöpendeln

har påverkat deras resvanor och vardagsliv.

Studien visar att deltagarna fokusgrupperna i allmänhet hade en positiv inställning till

MalmöExpressen. Flera fokusgrupper framhöll att de reser oftare med buss nu än när ”den

gamla linje 5” trafikerade sträckan. De framhöll att MalmöExpressen är snabb och smidig

att använda sig av. I jämförelse med andra busslinjer, framför allt buss 33 och 35 som

också passerar genom Rosengård, finns det många fler säten och mer plats för barnvagnar.

Speciellt de äldre fokusgruppsdeltagarna uppskattar att det finns många dörrar på

bussarna, eftersom det gör det enklare att hitta en ledig plats. MalmöExpressen är också

mycket mindre försenad än andra busslinjer. Något som upplevs som negativt är dock att

förarna ofta kör mycket fort och ibland tvärbromsar, vilket gör det farligt för

passagerarna, särskilt barn och äldre. Vissa av fokusgruppsdeltagarna föredrar att köra

bil, eftersom bussen upplevs som otrygg.

Många av fokusgruppsdeltagarna var också positiva till Malmöpendeln och Rosengårds

station, bland annat för att den har potential att göra Rosengård mer attraktivt. Dock hade

de flesta av deltagarna rest med Malmöpendeln endast ett fåtal gånger eller inte alls.

Några nämnde att de ofta reser med Malmöpendeln på helgerna, exempelvis till

Hylliebadet eller till köpcentret Emporia som ligger vid Hyllie. Det framhölls som en

fördel att det går mycket snabbare att ta sig till Hyllie med Malmöpendeln än med buss.

Utifrån förmågemodellen kan man dra slutsatsen att framför allt MalmöExpressen men

också till viss del Malmöpendeln har haft en positiv inverkan på förmågorna och

funktionerna hos flera av deltagarna i fokusgrupperna. En funktion defineras i detta

sammanhang som vad en person är eller gör, exempelvis att vara föräldrar eller att

engagera sig politiskt, medan en förmåga defineras som en möjlighet att välja en viss

funktion. En distinktion görs mellan grundläggande och sekundära förmågor där de förra

är mer allmänna, exempelvis förmågan att bevara hälsan, medan de sekundära

förmågorna är nödvändiga för att förverkliga de grundläggande förmågorna. Den

sekundära förmågan att resa till läkare eller till ett apotek är exempelvis nödvändig för att

förverkliga förmågan till hälsa. MalmöExpressen har för många av deltagarna haft en

positiv påverkan på deras sekundära förmågor att resa till ett arbete, till en utbildning, till

läkare, tandläkare eller apotek, till butiker, till fritidsaktiviteter och till vänner och

släktingar. Dessa är i sin tur nödvändiga för att förverkliga förmågorna att arbeta, att

utbilda sig, att bevara hälsan, att ha en berikande fritid och förmågan till anknytning.

MalmöExpressen verkar också ha haft en positiv påverkan på förmågan till självrespekt

för deltagarna i fokusgrupperna, eftersom den signalerar att Malmö stad investerar i att

förbättra levnadsvillkoren för invånarna i Rosengård. Malmöpendeln verkar framför allt

ha en positiv påverkan på förmågan till självrespekt och förmågan att ha en berikande

fritid. Baserat på denna studie kan vi inte dra några säkra slutsatser om hur vanligt

förekommande de positiva upplevelserna av MalmöExpressen och Malmöpendeln är.

Med tanke på att fokusgruppsdeltagarna representerar olika åldersgrupper, olika

etniciteter och båda könen, är det dock sannolikt att deras positiva upplevelser delas av

många andra invånare i Rosengård.

Urban transport is critical in shaping the form and function of cities, particularly the level of automobile dependence and sustainability. This K2 Working Paper presents a detailed study of the land use and urban transport characteristics of the ten largest urban regions in Sweden Stockholm, Malmö, Göteborg, Linköping, Helsingborg, Uppsala, Örebro, Västerås, Jönköping, and Umeå, the latter five of which are referred to as smaller Swedish cities in this report. It also presents data on Freiburg im Breisgau in southern Germany (population ca 225,000) as a benchmark case for sustainable transport against which to compare Swedish cities especially the smaller ones. It compares these cities to those in the USA, Australia, Canada, Europe and two large wealthy Asian cities (Singapore and Hong Kong). It finds that while density is critical in determining many features of urban mobility and particularly how much public transport, walking, and cycling are used, many Swedish cities maintain reasonable levels of all these more sustainable modes and only moderate levels of car use, while having less than half to one-third the density of other European cities. The smaller cities do, however, perform worst on public transport, but a little better on walking and cycling. Swedish settlement patterns and urban transport policies mean they also enjoy, globally, the lowest level of transport emissions and transport deaths per capita and similar levels of energy use in private passenger transport as other European cities, and a fraction of that used in lower density North American and Australian cities. Swedish urban public transport systems are generally well provided for and form an integral part of the way their cities function, considering their lower densities, though these systems are least well used in the smaller cities and urban rail use is very poor compared to the larger Swedish cities, which are themselves significantly lower in rail use than other European cities. Swedish cities’ use of walking and cycling is high, though a fraction lower than in other European cities (but only about half the level in Freiburg) and together with public transport cater for about 44% of the total daily trip making, compared to auto-dependent regions with between about 15% and 25% of daily trips by these sustainable modes. This working paper explores these data and many other urban transport indicators in significant detail, distinguishing between patterns found in the larger and smaller Swedish cities as well as comparisons to Freiburg and the other groups of world cities. It provides a clear depiction of the strengths and weaknesses of Swedish cities in urban transport and a summary of the key differences and similarities between the larger and smaller Swedish cities. It also provides some key policy implications from the data, suggestions for making transport more sustainable in Swedish cities, while positing possible explanations for some of the unique patterns observed.