K2 reports

K2 reports

K2 reports

The impact on bus ridership of passenger incentive contracts in Swedish public transport

Andreas Vigren, Roger Pyddoke, K2 Working Papers 2019:3

Over the years, passenger incentives have increasingly been used in Swedish public bus transport to increase ridership by introducing passenger incentive contracts. In those contracts, operator revenue comprises production-related revenue and a per-passenger–based incentive payment. In 2015, half of all active contracts were of this type, but there are few evaluations on whether the contract type increases ridership. Using rich passenger data, this paper analyses whether the ridership increase in the Skåne region can be attributed to the introduction of this contract type. The results cannot prove that passenger incentive contracts have increased ridership more than traditional gross-cost contracts. This is probably because both the per-passenger payment and operator freedom to adjust traffic provision are too low. While simulation studies have previously shown that higher payments and freedoms would increase bus ridership, it is unclear whether public transport authorities should leave the freedom to adjust traffic provision to operators, given the authorities’ social welfare responsibility. Instead, factors outside the contract, such as car-restricting measures and improved bus road space, might be more effective in increasing the number of passengers.

K2 reports

Sustainable Mobility in Swedish Cities

Jeff Kenworthy, K2 Working Papers 2019:1.

This final report presents the results of 124 urban transport related indicators for 2015 for Sweden’s five most populous urban regions and compares them with each other and against cities in the USA, Australia, Canada, Europe and two large cities in Asia (Singapore and Hong Kong). Results indicate that Swedish cities are atypically low in density, and high in roads and freeways compared to most other European cities. Partly resulting from these conditions, Swedish cities on average have much lower public transport boardings than typical European cities (roughly half), but at the same time they are much better than in the more auto-dependent regions in the USA, Australia and Canada where densities are also low. Notwithstanding their moderate public transport use, their normalised farebox and operating costs data are relatively similar to the other cities in the study. Public transport use measured by passenger kilometres is closer to European levels due to the longer distances travelled by public transport in Swedish cities. Modal split of daily trips is also just under 50% for public transport, walking and cycling combined, meaning that modal share in these five Swedish urban regions is pivoted rather equitably between the more sustainable and less sustainable modes. Car use per person (vehicle kilometres) is only a little higher in the Swedish cities and passenger kilometres per person in cars are about the same compared to typical European cities. The percentage of total motorised passenger kilometres accounted for by public transport is much higher than in the USA, Canada and Australia, but less than in other European and in Asia cities. Energy use in private motorised passenger transport is, due to comparable car use levels, like that in other European cities and very much lower than in the auto-cities of North America and Australia. The Swedish cities excel in their extremely low transport emissions per capita and low spatial intensity of emissions (per hectare) compared to every other region in the world and even the worst Swedish cities are better than the best of the other cities. Likewise, in transport fatalities, Swedish cities are the lowest in the world. Some factors that seem to contribute to the above sometimes paradoxical situations are that: a. Swedish cities have significantly lower car ownership than might be expected, lower even than other European cities and average wealth levels in 2015, as measured by metropolitan GDP are below typical European levels (though comparable to 2005/6 levels Australian and Canadian cities). b. These five Swedish cities have comparatively low parking supply in their CBDs and a relatively high proportion of metropolitan jobs located in the CBDs, which assists public transport in the journey-to-work. c. despite low densities, Swedish cities have developed relatively well-performing and more extensive public transport systems than many comparable lower density cities – they have healthy levels of service in terms of seat kilometres per capita, only eclipsed by other European cities and the Asian cities. However, seat occupancy is comparatively low, indicating generous levels of spare capacity that could be utilised through better urban planning to create back-loading of passengers. d. Swedish cities have the highest level of public transport line length per persons, as well as high levels of reserved public transport route per person, although they are also well-endowed with freeways, which tends to undercut this advantage. e. average operating speeds for public transport in Sweden seem to be higher than most other cities and public transport overall enjoys a modest speed advantage over car speeds. f. Swedish cities spend relatively generous amounts of money operating their public transport systems, on average about 1.34% of their local GDPs, which significantly exceeds that of the auto-dependent regions, and is close to the other European cities (1.50%). g. cost recovery from fares of public transport operating costs is on average a bit less than 50% and less on average that the other global cities. This may be partly indicative of a recognition in Sweden of the proven value of public transport systems in helping to create urban regions that are only moderately car dependent by developed world standards, despite lower densities, because farebox recovery takes no account of public transport’s broader economic benefits and h. Swedish cities have significant areas of urban fabric that are supportive of non-motorised modes and where walking and cycling is high, leading to over 27% of daily trips in Swedish cities by these modes, despite a very cold climate. Three key weaknesses that have emerged in Swedish cities are: (a) their overall low density that would benefit from targeted increases in higher density development, especially linked to expanded and improved public transport, especially rail. Stockholm is by far the best of the Swedish cities in sustainable transport and although it is still overall a relatively low-density region, it is bound together by strong urban rail networks around which very high density, mixed use centres have been built; (b) the need to restrict further development of already abundant freeway systems in all five of the Swedish cities and (c) an over-reliance on bus systems and the need for more extensive urban rail networks. A major difference between Swedish and European cities generally is that European cities have three times higher rail use and this is a critical distinguishing feature in the lower public transport use in Swedish cities.

K2 reports

The influence of demand incentives in public transport contracts on patronage and costs in medium sized Swedish cities

Roger Pyddoke, Jan-Erik Swärdh, K2 Working Papers 2017:10.

Målsättningen att minska koldioxidutsläppen har inspirerat svenska regionala kollektivtrafikmyndigheter (RKM) att anta ett mål att fördubbla kollektivtrafikskyddet från 2006 till 2020. Flera åtgärder har använts för att nå detta mål. Att öka utbudet av kollektivtrafik och öka andelen av kontraktsbetalningar som är knutna till att kräva incitament är bland dem. Syftet här är att undersöka effekten av efterfrågeincitament på antalet resande i upphandlade busskontrakt i mellanstora svenska städer, när man kontrollerar andra faktorer som påverkar resande, med paneldata för 17 svenska städer från 1997 till 2011. I data för en delmängd av 10 städer från 2000 till 2011 ökade antalet resor med 36 procent, utbud av busskilometer med 38 procent, intäkter per ombordstigning med 49 procent och totala kostnader med 106 procent. Analysen visar inga statistiskt signifikanta effekter av efterfrågeincitament på vare sig resande eller kostnader. I efterfrågemodellerna är endast effekten av pris statistiskt signifikant skild från noll och har det förväntade tecknet. I kostnadsmodellerna har alla kontrollvariabler de förväntade tecknen och de flesta är signifikanta. Överraskande är uppskattningen av koefficienten för busskilometervariabeln inte signifikant. Dessa resultat indikerar att kombinationen av begränsad frihet för operatörer att påverka viktiga variabler som påverkar efterfrågan på resor och de efterfrågeincitament som användes under den observerade perioden var otillräckligt för att ge statistiskt observerbara effekter. I motsats till det antagande som verkar ligga till grund för rekommendationerna från Partnersamverkan (det organ som givit rekommendationer om incitament) förefaller nuvarande efterfrågeincitament vara verkningslösa. Detta indikerar att en revision av rekommendationerna för utformningen av kollektivtrafikkontrakt kan vara påkallad.

K2 reports

”A new model for analyzing differentiated fares and frequencies for urban bus services in small cities”

Disa Asplund, Roger Pyddoke. K2 Working Papers 2017:8.

The purpose of this paper is to develop a model for welfare evaluation of fare and frequency policies for bus services in smaller or medium-sized cities handling both congestion and crowding in public transport. The model with data for the city of Uppsala. Two scenarios with marginal increases in frequencies and fares are evaluated. Then four main optimal policies are evaluated: fares with unchanged base line frequencies, frequencies with unchanged base line fares, simultaneous optimization of fares and frequencies and finally a scenario called the Pareto scenario where frequencies and fares are optimized subject to the condition that no consumer group (defined by zone, time period, origin-destination pair) should be worse of in terms of generalized cost of trip. The results indicate that there are large, seemingly robust welfare gains from reducing public transport supply in Uppsala, especially in the outer zone of the city where reductions compared to the current situation are rather drastic. In comparison, welfare gains form adjusting fares are smaller. As there are large distributional effects in the welfare optimum, introduction of such a policy it is likely to be controversial. However, in an additionally examined scenario, almost all of the potential social welfare gains from the welfare optimal scenario is achieved while no consumer in any zone or time period is worse off compared to present policy. In this scenario, the total number of public transport passengers are increased and emissions are reduced compared to the current situation.

K2 reports

Superincentive contracts

Hans Danielson, Henrik Andersson, Anders Wretstrand. K2 Working Papers 2016:5.

This is a draft working paper, in its present form submitted to a scientific journal. We await respons from reviewers (accept / reject), and how the manuscript could be improved. Any input is therefore
welcome. The basic content was also presented at Thredbo 14, held in Santiago 30 August to 3 September 2015, during Workshop 7 (Market initiative: regulatory design, implementation and performance). Thredbo is the international conference series on competition and ownership in land passenger transport.

K2 reports

Dynamic bus lanes in Sweden – a pre-study

Johan Olstam, Carl-Henrik Häll, Göran Smith, Azra Habibovic och Anna Anund. K2 Research, 2015:5. Lund 2015.

This report presents the results of the research pre-study PROVDYK (PRiOritering aV bussar genom DYnamiska Körfält – en förstudie kring potential och begränsningar / Priority of buses by dynamic lanes - a pre study of potential and limits). The project was conducted by a consortium including research institutes (VTI and Viktoria Swedish ICT), academic institutions (Linköpings University and Lund University), governmental organisations (Trafikverket and Transportstyrelsen), industry (Volvo, Scania and FältCom) and municipalities (Lund, Malmö, Stockholm, and Göteborg).