Vetenskapliga artiklar

Vetenskapliga artiklar

Vetenskapliga artiklar

Explaining dwell time delays with passenger counts for some commuter trains in Stockholm and Tokyo

Carl-William Palmqvist, Norio Tomii, Yasufumi Ochiai, Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management, March 2020

In both Stockholm and Tokyo, small dwell time delays of at most 5 min make up around 90% of the total delays for commuter trains. To understand these disturbances, we use high resolution data on dwell times and passenger counts from both countries over the last several years. We find that trains in Tokyo are much more congested than in Stockholm, and that the exchange of passengers is modest at most stations in the latter city. In both cities, the range of dwell time delays is quite narrow, with between 40 and 50 s separating the 5th and 95th percentiles. Most delays are thus very small, and even small adjustments to dwell times can make a big difference overall. We find that the data on passengers explain about 40% of this variation in dwell time delays, if we account for non-linear and interaction effects, which is thus a ballpark estimate for how much the exchange of passenger contributes to delays for these trains. We also produce simple, linear models which can be used in practice to assign more appropriate dwell times. To facilitate such improvements, key stakeholders and practitioners have been closely involved with the research in both countries.

Vetenskapliga artiklar

The impact on bus ridership of passenger incentive contracts in public transport

Andreas Vigren, Roger Pyddoke, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, May 2020

Over the years, passenger incentives have increasingly been used in Swedish public bus transport to increase ridership by introducing passenger incentive contracts. In 2015, half of all active contracts were of this type. In those contracts, operator revenue comprises production-related revenue and a per-passenger–based incentive payment. Using rich passenger data, this paper analyses whether the ridership increase in the Skåne region can be attributed to the introduction of this contract type.

The results cannot prove that passenger incentive contracts have increased ridership more than traditional gross-cost contracts. This is probably because both the per-passenger payment and operator freedom to adjust traffic provision are too low. While simulation studies have previously shown that higher payments and freedoms would increase bus ridership, it is unclear whether public transport authorities should leave the freedom to adjust traffic provision to operators, given the authorities’ social welfare responsibility. Instead, factors outside the contract, such as car-restricting measures and improved bus road space, might be more effective in increasing the number of passengers.

Vetenskapliga artiklar

Understanding Mobility as a Service (MaaS)

David Hensher, Corinne Mulley, Chinh Ho, Yale Wong, Göran Smith and John Nelson, May 2020

The widespread adoption of smartphones, ridesharing and carsharing have disrupted the transport sector. In cities around the world, new mobility services are both welcomed and challenged by regulators and incumbent operators. Mobility as a Service (MaaS), an ecosystem designed to deliver collaborative and connected mobility services in a society increasingly embracing a sharing culture, is at the center of this disruption.

Understanding Mobility as a Service (MaaS): Past, Present and Future examines such topics as:

  • How likely MaaS will be implemented in one digital platform app
  • Whether MaaS will look the same in all countries
  • The role multi-modal contract brokers play
  • Mobility regulations and pricing models
  • MaaS trials, their impacts and consequences

Written by the leading thinkers in the field for researchers, practitioners, and policy makers, Understanding Mobility as a Service (MaaS): Past, Present and Future serves as a single source on all the current and evolving developments, debates, and challenges. 

Vetenskapliga artiklar

Making Mobility-as-a-Service: Towards Governance Principles and Pathways

Göran Smith, Doctoral thesis, May 2020

Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) is a service concept that integrates public transport with other mobility services, such as car sharing, ride sourcing, and bicycle sharing. The core idea is that intermediary digital services make it easier for users to plan, book, and pay for complementary mobility services, thereby facilitating less car-centric lifestyles. However, although MaaS has gained much interest in recent years, the concept has proven difficult to realize. Accordingly, there is a prevalent demand for knowledge on how to enable and push MaaS developments.

Conceptualizing MaaS developments as an innovation process that might contribute to a sustainability transition, this thesis sets out to improve the understanding of how public sector actors can facilitate action in the early phases and steer the innovation trajectory towards addressing long-term sustainability goals. The public transport authority in Västra Götaland (Sweden), and its attempts to facilitate MaaS developments, is used as a starting point. Three of its MaaS-related activities between 2016 and 2019 are analyzed based on participatory observation and stakeholder interviews. Additionally, the thesis draws on two qualitative studies of MaaS developments situated in Finland and Australia.

The thesis’ contribution to the research field of MaaS is threefold. Firstly, it explores expectations of MaaS. A majority of the actors involved in the studied MaaS developments reckoned that MaaS will support a modal shift away from private car use. Still, while some actors were confident that this will lower the negative externalities of personal mobility systems, others feared that it will reinforce social and environmental problems. Of note is that none of these views are yet backed by any extensive empirical evidence, the shortage of which is an ongoing challenge for MaaS developments. Secondly, the thesis identifies institutional factors that shape MaaS developments. The studied developments were enabled by novel information technologies and motivated by the need to lessen the negative impacts of private cars. Yet, the developments brought together actors that had not previously collaborated and challenged models of collaboration, business, and customer relations, which made them contingent on complex modifications within and beyond personal mobility systems. Thirdly, the thesis examines how the public sector governs MaaS developments. The governance approaches varied across Sweden, Finland, and Australia in terms of leading actors, methods of intervention, and underlying motivations, but were yet to deliver much tangible results for citizens in all three countries.

Based on these findings, the thesis proposes principles and pathways for MaaS governance. The principles advocate a broad set of activities to address all the institutional factors that impede MaaS developments. In contrast to the observed governance approaches, this includes activities aimed at strengthening mobility services and active mobility, and at weakening the private car regime. The pathways describe four roles public sector actors can take in MaaS developments – MaaS Promoter, MaaS Partner, MaaS Enabler, and Laissez-Faire – and illustrate how the method(s) of intervention can be adjusted between innovation phases. The principles and pathways thereby provide a comprehensive tool for understanding and enhancing public-private dynamics in MaaS developments.

Vetenskapliga artiklar

Access to public mobility services and health in old age: a cross-sectional study in three Swedish cities

Carlos Chiatti, Yngve Westerlund, Agneta Ståhl. Journal of Transport and Health, Vol. 7, 2018


Little evidence is available on how public transport features can impact on older people's health. The overarching aim of this paper is to evaluate socio-demographic, health and mobility-related factors correlated with health-related quality of life among people aged between 75 to 90 years old in three Swedish Municipalities.


Within the SEBEM study, a cross-sectional survey using a self-administered postal questionnaire was conducted among 2398 older people aged between 75 and 90 years. Primary outcome of the study was health-related quality of life measured using the SF12 which distinguishes two dimensions of health, i.e. the Physical Composite Score (PCS) and the Mental Component Score (MCS). Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the variability study outcomes. Multilevel regression models were used to investigate factors independently correlated with health, controlling for the influence of potential confounders.


Higher physical and mental self-reported health is associated with walking more than 500 m on a daily basis, use of a private car and frequent engagement in social activities. Access to the car is only associated with physical health. Mental health scores are significantly lower among those living far from the closest bus stop and never using public transport.


We provide evidence of epidemiological associations between access to public mobility services and good health in older age. Given the cross-sectional design of our analyses, and the related limitations, the associations found should be investigated more thoroughly by future studies using longitudinal and/or experimental designs.

Vetenskapliga artiklar

Bus Stops and Violence, Are Risky Places Really Risky?

Manne Gerell. European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research, 24. 2018.

Geographic forecasting of crime can be done by considering prior crime or by considering spatial risk factors, e.g., using risk terrain modeling (RTM). The present paper tests both methods, but primarily focuses on RTM and on increasing our understanding of forecasting by attempting to compare the spatial risk factors for where the number of crimes is high with the spatial risk factors for where the risk of victimization is high. This is performed by fitting negative binomial models on crime around bus stops and comparing them to the same models with the number of bus passengers as exposure variable. The models also take the surrounding environment into account by fitting multi-level models with neighborhood level predictors of concentrated disadvantage and collective efficacy. The results show that some types of facilities are risk factors for crime, but not for victimization. This results in new insights into how flows of people impact on forecasting, as for instance a school is a spatial risk factor for crime, while not being associated with an elevated risk per person. The results also show that the neighborhood level of collective efficacy is a stable and significant risk factor both for crime and for risk of victimization, highlighting a potential for better crime forecasting by combining different spatial and theoretical perspectives.

The aim of this paper is thus to add to the crime forecasting literature by considering differences between risk factors for crime and risk factors for crime per population at risk. The paper uses the methodological concept of risk terrain modeling (RTM), but for forecasting purposes the findings should be relevant more generally.

Vetenskapliga artiklar

A Dynamic Approach to Multi-Agent-Based Simulation in Urban Transportation Planning

Banafsheh Hajinasab. 2018.

Reviewing previous studies on using computational models for analyzing the effect of transport policies on transportation systems shows that agentbased models have not been used much in spite of their great potential for simulating dynamic aspects of policy instruments and travel behavior. The main reason can be the need for a lot of input data which is hard to prepare for the modeler. This has led to limited use of agent-based models in previous studies and even in those studies the scope of simulation is limited to only particular scenarios. In this thesis, I proposed a general-purpose agent-based simulation model for urban transportation that supports simulation of a wide range of policy instruments. The proposed model is designed in a way that a large part of the input data can be generated automatically using online web-services. The thesis also reports an empirical study on using our proposed generalpurpose model together with on-line travel planners in agent-based simulation for predicting the effect of different policy instruments on travel behavior. The results from our empirical study showed that our generalpurpose agent-based model predicts 72% of the real travel decisions correctly. Furthermore, the results of the simulation for various scenarios and combination of them seem to be acceptable. Finally, we found out that the use of on-line services for data collection increases the speed and flexibility of the system for defining and running new scenarios. However, the scalability of using on-line services in simulation is constrained by limitations of online service providers. The main contributions of this thesis are a general-purpose agentbased simulation model for urban transportation and a novel approach to automatically generate input data to the simulation using online travel planners and other web-services. This novel approach mitigates the challenge of agent-based simulation as a data-intensive method. This can lead to more widespread use for agent-based simulation in solving complex and realistic transportation scenarios. Another contribution of this thesis is on visualization of simulation output. One of the main challenges of using simulation systems by transport planners and decision makers as end-users is to understand the complex output of the simulation. In this thesis, I empirically demonstrated how the usability of a freight transport simulation system is improved by adding a visualization module that illustrates the results of the simulation for the end-users.

Vetenskapliga artiklar

The Role of Public Transport in Society—A Case Study of General Policy Documents in Sweden

Vanessa Stjernborg, Ola Mattisson. Sustainability, Vol. 8, 2016

The aim of this paper is to study how local governments in Sweden view the role of public transport in society, and to investigate how public transport is used in a strategic capacity. By studying general policy documents, the ambition is to gain a wider understanding of the role of public transport based on the societal context it is situated in. Documents from 15 regions and 27 municipalities have been analysed by a qualitative content analysis. Results show that public transport is regarded as an important factor towards achieving other goals and other public values, particularly those related to economic and environmental issues; and that the social dimension is not as prioritised. Rail-bound public transport is often advocated, as are collaboration between organizations and integrated land-use and transport planning. However, the studied documents showed large overall differences in how counties and municipalities address public transport issues. It should be a priority in Sweden’s main steering documents to treat public transport consistently and give it the same priority as other societal functions—not least because Sweden’s treatment of public transport is a reasonable reflection of its overall society and can influence prioritisations and considerations in counties and municipalities across the country.

Vetenskapliga artiklar

Evaluation of public transport: regional policies and planning practices in Sweden

Erik Johansson, Lena Winslott Hiselius, Till Koglin, Anders Wretstrand. Urban, Planning and Transport Research, Vol. 5, 2017

This paper analyses regional public transport planning in Sweden. The aim is to provide an insight into how policy objectives are translated into action and to investigate how public transport measures are evaluated. The analysis is based on interviews with civil servants in five Swedish regions. Cost-benefit analysis is sparsely used (if ever) and the results further indicate that planning and evaluation of public transport is to a large extent centred around monitoring on-going trends, e.g. patronage and market share. Such information seems policy-relevant, i.e. is commonly asked for by the political level. The informants do ask for more knowledge regarding various effects (mainly social). However, it is less certain whether or not this knowledge would be used for economic evaluation. Regional and local public transport systems are complex, and intrinsically linked to land use and long-term regional ambitions. Instead of asking how public transport planning should be carried out, following CBA analyses, we should perhaps ask how the economic analysis could be tuned so that it becomes relevant for public transport planning. We foresee that the broader role of the public transport system will increase goal conflicts between, and within, authorities.

Vetenskapliga artiklar

A Simulation Model for Assessment and Evaluation of Bus Terminal Design

Therese Lindberg, Anders Peterson, Andreas Tapani. CASPT, 2018.

Interchange stations with their connections between modes and lines are
central for a high quality public transport system. Bus access at the station needs
to operate reliably and efficiently in order to prevent congestion and queues. Here,
a discrete event simulation model of vehicle movements and interactions at bus terminals is developed and implemented. The model has a modular approach, where
common spatial sections at terminals are represented by modules that can be combined into various terminal layouts. These modules describe the events a vehicle may
go through in a particular section of the terminal, such as arriving to a bus stop or
stopping at a traffic light at the exit. The model can be used in planning processes,
both for new terminals and redesign of existing ones, and is able to describe the detailed movements and interactions between vehicles that occur at larger terminals.
The model is tested in a numerical experiment representing Norrkoping interchange ¨
station in Sweden. The experiment shows that the model is able to evaluate and compare different scenarios and can thus be a useful tool in planning processes.